Arka Gdynia 2–1 Miedz Legnica: Result & Stats

Arka Gdynia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Miedz Legnica

O. Kobacki 84'

K. Czubak 64'

D. Michalik 90+4'

9/17/2023

I Liga · Round 8Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Arka Gdynia45%

×Draw27%

Miedz Legnica29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka GdyniaExpected goals in this matchMiedz Legnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.09

Arka Gdynia

1.42

Miedz Legnica

1.09

Arka Gdynia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 103 away

1.67

creates per match

1.22

0.97

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Arka Gdynia

1.67

Miedz Legnica

1.22

allows per match

Arka Gdynia

0.97

Miedz Legnica

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Miedz Legnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw

71%

Arka Gdynia or Miedz Legnica

73%

Draw or Miedz Legnica

55%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

21%

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

76%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

41%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

17%

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

66%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

30%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

61%

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.97 · 89 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.67 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Miedz Legnica attack 1.22 + Arka Gdynia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more

45%

level

27%

Miedz Legnica scores more

29%

Arka Gdynia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

45+2'

45+3'

46'

55'

56'

63'

Tarsi← D. Tront

64'

B. Guzdek← K. Antonik

64'

M. Mansfeld← K. Drzazga

64'

K. Czubak

82'

M. Borecki← K. Skóra

82'

M. Predenkiewicz← J. Gol

84'

D. Stanclik← M. Lehaire

84'

O. Kobacki

90+4'

K. Lipkowski

90+5'

T. Aguado

90'

M. Bednarski← Luan Capanni

90+2'

W. Sawicki← S. Milewski

90+4'

D. Michalik

Arka

Miedz

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: W. Łobodziński

82'▲M. Borecki←▼K. Skóra

82'▲M. Predenkiewicz←▼J. Gol

90'▲M. Bednarski←▼Luan Capanni

90+2'▲W. Sawicki←▼S. Milewski

Arka Gdynia substitutes

BoreckiPredenkiewiczBednarskiSawickiAdamczykWilczyńskiChudýSzymańskiZieliński

Manager: R. Bella

46'▲K. Drygas←▼E. Agbor

63'▲Tarsi←▼D. Tront

64'▲B. Guzdek←▼K. Antonik

64'▲M. Mansfeld←▼K. Drzazga

84'▲D. Stanclik←▼M. Lehaire

Miedz Legnica substitutes

DrygasTarsiGuzdekMansfeldStanclikAbramowiczPierzakZalewskiBogacz