Arka Gdynia 0–1 Legia Warszawa: Result & Stats

Arka Gdynia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Legia Warszawa

11/3/2019

Ekstraklasa · Round 14Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Arka Gdynia42%

×Draw24%

Legia Warszawa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka GdyniaExpected goals in this matchLegia Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.46

Arka Gdynia

1.63

Legia Warszawa

1.46

Arka Gdynia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 28 away

1.59

creates per match

1.49

1.44

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Arka Gdynia

1.59

Legia Warszawa

1.49

allows per match

Arka Gdynia

1.44

Legia Warszawa

1.66

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Arka Gdynia-0.26scores less

Legia Warszawa+0.01on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Legia Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw

66%

Arka Gdynia or Legia Warszawa

76%

Draw or Legia Warszawa

58%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

21%

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

80%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

48%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

22%

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals

77%

Legia Warszawa 2+ goals

43%

Legia Warszawa 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

55%

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Legia Warszawa away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.66 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.59 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

Legia Warszawa attack 1.49 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more

42%

level

24%

Legia Warszawa scores more

34%

Arka Gdynia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff