Arka Gdynia 1–2 Gornik Zabrze: Result & Stats

Arka Gdynia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Gornik Zabrze

Marcus 48'

A. Manneh 83'

M. Koj 14'

7/14/2020

Ekstraklasa · Relegation Round - 6Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Arka Gdynia46%

×Draw25%

Gornik Zabrze29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka GdyniaExpected goals in this matchGornik Zabrze

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.16

Arka Gdynia

1.52

Gornik Zabrze

1.16

Arka Gdynia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

1.59

creates per match

0.88

1.44

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Arka Gdynia

1.59

Gornik Zabrze

0.88

allows per match

Arka Gdynia

1.44

Gornik Zabrze

1.44

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Arka Gdynia-0.26scores less

Gornik Zabrze-0.05on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Gornik Zabrze →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw

71%

Arka Gdynia or Gornik Zabrze

75%

Draw or Gornik Zabrze

54%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

23%

Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

78%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

45%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

20%

Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals

69%

Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals

32%

Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

61%

Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Gornik Zabrze away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.44 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.59 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gornik Zabrze attack 0.88 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more

46%

level

25%

Gornik Zabrze scores more

29%

Arka Gdynia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Paluszek

14'

M. Koj

46'

J. Wawszczyk← K. Antonik

48'

Marcus↳ M. Nalepa

51'

A. Ryczkowski← J. Jimenez

64'

F. Helstrup← L. Maric

66'

P. Krawczyk← R. Prochazka

76'

79'

83'

87'

87'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ArkaGornik

Overview

52%Possession48%

7Total Shots11

12Corners4

13Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots11

3On Target5

4Off Target6

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

4Offsides4