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Arka Gdynia vs Górnik Łęczna — I Liga 2018

Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
3/13/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 23Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Arka Gdynia48%
×Draw26%
Górnik Łęczna27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arka Gdynia
1.50
Górnik Łęczna
1.05

Arka Gdynia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 86 away

creates per match

Arka Gdynia
1.67
Górnik Łęczna
1.13

allows per match

Arka Gdynia
0.97
Górnik Łęczna
1.33

finishing

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Górnik Łęczna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw
73%
Arka Gdynia or Górnik Łęczna
74%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna
52%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+
24%
Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals
78%
Arka Gdynia 2+ goals
44%
Arka Gdynia 3+ goals
19%
Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
65%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
28%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)
64%
Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.97 · 89 matches

Górnik Łęczna away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.67 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.13 + Arka Gdynia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more
48%
level
26%
Górnik Łęczna scores more
27%

Arka Gdynia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Arka Gdynia 0–1 Górnik Łęczna

Górnik Łęczna beat Arka Gdynia 1-0 in I Liga on March 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Gdynia.