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Arka Gdynia vs Csikszereda — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Csikszereda
Csikszereda
K. Jakubczyk 17'
S. Dusinszki 67'
1/10/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Arka Gdynia53%
×Draw24%
Csikszereda23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arka Gdynia
1.71
Csikszereda
1.03

Arka Gdynia creates 66% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

creates per match

Arka Gdynia
2.22
Csikszereda
1.00

allows per match

Arka Gdynia
1.06
Csikszereda
1.20

finishing

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par
Csikszereda+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Csikszereda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw
77%
Arka Gdynia or Csikszereda
76%
Draw or Csikszereda
47%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+
29%
Csikszereda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals
82%
Arka Gdynia 2+ goals
51%
Arka Gdynia 3+ goals
24%
Csikszereda 1+ goals
64%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
28%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)
70%
Csikszereda (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Csikszereda away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 2.22 + Csikszereda defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.71

Csikszereda attack 1.00 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more
53%
level
24%
Csikszereda scores more
23%

Arka Gdynia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
K. Jakubczyk
67'
S. Dusinszki
Arka
Csikszereda
Dawid Szwarga
Manager: Dawid Szwarga
Robert Ilyes
Manager: Robert Ilyes

Friendlies Clubs: Arka Gdynia 1–1 Csikszereda

Arka Gdynia and Csikszereda drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2026.

Goals: K. Jakubczyk (17'), S. Dusinszki (67').