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Arka Gdynia U19 vs Pogoń Szczecin U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Arka Gdynia U19
Arka Gdynia U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pogoń Szczecin U19
Pogoń Szczecin U19
11/3/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Arka Gdynia U1945%
×Draw21%
Pogoń Szczecin U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arka Gdynia U19
2.02
Pogoń Szczecin U19
1.73

Arka Gdynia U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

creates per match

Arka Gdynia U19
2.00
Pogoń Szczecin U19
1.78

allows per match

Arka Gdynia U19
1.68
Pogoń Szczecin U19
2.05

finishing

Arka Gdynia U19+0.00on par
Pogoń Szczecin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia U19 ↓

Pogoń Szczecin U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia U19 or draw
66%
Arka Gdynia U19 or Pogoń Szczecin U19
79%
Draw or Pogoń Szczecin U19
55%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia U19 wins by 2+
25%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia U19 1+ goals
87%
Arka Gdynia U19 2+ goals
60%
Arka Gdynia U19 3+ goals
33%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 1+ goals
82%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 2+ goals
52%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

Pogoń Szczecin U19 away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia U19 attack 2.00 + Pogoń Szczecin U19 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.02

Pogoń Szczecin U19 attack 1.78 + Arka Gdynia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arka Gdynia U19 scores more
45%
level
21%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 scores more
34%

Arka Gdynia U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arka Gdynia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Arka Gdynia U19 1–0 Pogoń Szczecin U19

Arka Gdynia U19 beat Pogoń Szczecin U19 1-0 in Central Youth League on November 3, 2023.