Arka Gdynia U19 3–1 Escola Varsovia U19

Arka Gdynia U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Escola Varsovia U19

11/23/2024

Central Youth League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Arka Gdynia U1947%

×Draw22%

Escola Varsovia U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka Gdynia U19Expected goals in this matchEscola Varsovia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.60

Arka Gdynia U19

1.98

Escola Varsovia U19

1.60

Arka Gdynia U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

2.00

creates per match

1.53

1.68

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Arka Gdynia U19

2.00

Escola Varsovia U19

1.53

allows per match

Arka Gdynia U19

1.68

Escola Varsovia U19

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arka Gdynia U19+0.00on par

Escola Varsovia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia U19 ↓

Escola Varsovia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia U19 or draw

68%

Arka Gdynia U19 or Escola Varsovia U19

78%

Draw or Escola Varsovia U19

53%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia U19 wins by 2+

26%

Escola Varsovia U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia U19 1+ goals

86%

Arka Gdynia U19 2+ goals

59%

Arka Gdynia U19 3+ goals

31%

Escola Varsovia U19 1+ goals

80%

Escola Varsovia U19 2+ goals

47%

Escola Varsovia U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Escola Varsovia U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

Escola Varsovia U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.95 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia U19 attack 2.00 + Escola Varsovia U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Escola Varsovia U19 attack 1.53 + Arka Gdynia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arka Gdynia U19 scores more

47%

level

22%

Escola Varsovia U19 scores more

32%

Arka Gdynia U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arka Gdynia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff