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Arka Gdynia U18 vs Miedź Legnica U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Arka Gdynia U18
Arka Gdynia U18
FT
2 – 1
Miedź Legnica U18
Miedź Legnica U18
10/22/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Arka Gdynia U1878%
×Draw13%
Miedź Legnica U189%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arka Gdynia U18
3.17
Miedź Legnica U18
1.05

Arka Gdynia U18 creates 202% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 7 away

creates per match

Arka Gdynia U18
2.49
Miedź Legnica U18
0.43

allows per match

Arka Gdynia U18
1.68
Miedź Legnica U18
3.86

finishing

Arka Gdynia U18+0.00on par
Miedź Legnica U18+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia U18 ↓

Miedź Legnica U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia U18 or draw
91%
Arka Gdynia U18 or Miedź Legnica U18
87%
Draw or Miedź Legnica U18
22%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia U18 wins by 2+
59%
Miedź Legnica U18 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia U18 1+ goals
96%
Arka Gdynia U18 2+ goals
82%
Arka Gdynia U18 3+ goals
60%
Miedź Legnica U18 1+ goals
65%
Miedź Legnica U18 2+ goals
28%
Miedź Legnica U18 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia U18 (draw refunded)
89%
Miedź Legnica U18 (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia U18 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.68 · 37 matches

Miedź Legnica U18 away — creates 0.43, concedes 3.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia U18 attack 2.49 + Miedź Legnica U18 defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 3.17

Miedź Legnica U18 attack 0.43 + Arka Gdynia U18 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Arka Gdynia U18 scores more
78%
level
13%
Miedź Legnica U18 scores more
9%

Arka Gdynia U18 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Arka Gdynia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Arka Gdynia U18 2–1 Miedź Legnica U18

Arka Gdynia U18 beat Miedź Legnica U18 2-1 in Central Youth League on October 22, 2022.