Arka Gdynia U18 5–0 Lech Poznań U18: Result & Stats

Arka Gdynia U18

FT

5 – 0

Lech Poznań U18

9/23/2020

Central Youth League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Arka Gdynia U1845%

×Draw21%

Lech Poznań U1835%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka Gdynia U18Expected goals in this matchLech Poznań U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.90

Arka Gdynia U18

2.18

Lech Poznań U18

1.90

Arka Gdynia U18 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

2.49

creates per match

2.13

1.68

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Arka Gdynia U18

2.49

Lech Poznań U18

2.13

allows per match

Arka Gdynia U18

1.68

Lech Poznań U18

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arka Gdynia U18+0.00on par

Lech Poznań U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia U18 ↓

Lech Poznań U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia U18 or draw

65%

Arka Gdynia U18 or Lech Poznań U18

79%

Draw or Lech Poznań U18

55%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia U18 wins by 2+

26%

Lech Poznań U18 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia U18 1+ goals

89%

Arka Gdynia U18 2+ goals

64%

Arka Gdynia U18 3+ goals

37%

Lech Poznań U18 1+ goals

85%

Lech Poznań U18 2+ goals

56%

Lech Poznań U18 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia U18 (draw refunded)

57%

Lech Poznań U18 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia U18 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.68 · 37 matches

Lech Poznań U18 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia U18 attack 2.49 + Lech Poznań U18 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.18

Lech Poznań U18 attack 2.13 + Arka Gdynia U18 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arka Gdynia U18 scores more

45%

level

21%

Lech Poznań U18 scores more

35%

Arka Gdynia U18 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arka Gdynia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff