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Arka Gdynia U18 vs Escola Varsovia U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Arka Gdynia U18
Arka Gdynia U18
FT
3 – 1
Escola Varsovia U18
Escola Varsovia U18
11/18/2020Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Arka Gdynia U1849%
×Draw21%
Escola Varsovia U1830%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arka Gdynia U18
2.11
Escola Varsovia U18
1.64

Arka Gdynia U18 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 22 away

creates per match

Arka Gdynia U18
2.49
Escola Varsovia U18
1.59

allows per match

Arka Gdynia U18
1.68
Escola Varsovia U18
1.73

finishing

Arka Gdynia U18+0.00on par
Escola Varsovia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia U18 ↓

Escola Varsovia U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia U18 or draw
70%
Arka Gdynia U18 or Escola Varsovia U18
79%
Draw or Escola Varsovia U18
51%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia U18 wins by 2+
28%
Escola Varsovia U18 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia U18 1+ goals
88%
Arka Gdynia U18 2+ goals
62%
Arka Gdynia U18 3+ goals
35%
Escola Varsovia U18 1+ goals
81%
Escola Varsovia U18 2+ goals
49%
Escola Varsovia U18 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia U18 (draw refunded)
62%
Escola Varsovia U18 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia U18 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.68 · 37 matches

Escola Varsovia U18 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia U18 attack 2.49 + Escola Varsovia U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.11

Escola Varsovia U18 attack 1.59 + Arka Gdynia U18 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arka Gdynia U18 scores more
49%
level
21%
Escola Varsovia U18 scores more
30%

Arka Gdynia U18 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arka Gdynia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Arka Gdynia U18 3–1 Escola Varsovia U18

Arka Gdynia U18 beat Escola Varsovia U18 3-1 in Central Youth League on November 18, 2020.