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Ariznabarra vs Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Ariznabarra
Ariznabarra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vitoria
Vitoria
11/28/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Estadio Ariznabarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ariznabarra22%
×Draw27%
Vitoria51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariznabarra
0.84
Vitoria
1.43

Vitoria creates 70% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 78 away

creates per match

Ariznabarra
1.00
Vitoria
1.37

allows per match

Ariznabarra
1.48
Vitoria
0.68

finishing

Ariznabarra+0.00on par
Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariznabarra ↓

Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ariznabarra or draw
49%
Ariznabarra or Vitoria
73%
Draw or Vitoria
78%

Winning margin

Ariznabarra wins by 2+
7%
Vitoria wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ariznabarra 1+ goals
57%
Ariznabarra 2+ goals
21%
Ariznabarra 3+ goals
5%
Vitoria 1+ goals
76%
Vitoria 2+ goals
42%
Vitoria 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ariznabarra (draw refunded)
30%
Vitoria (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariznabarra at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Vitoria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariznabarra attack 1.00 + Vitoria defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.84

Vitoria attack 1.37 + Ariznabarra defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ariznabarra scores more
22%
level
27%
Vitoria scores more
51%

Vitoria at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ariznabarra vs Vitoria

Vitoria beat Ariznabarra 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Ariznabarra in Vitoria-Gasteiz.