Ariznabarra 5–1 Urgatzi: Result & Stats

Ariznabarra

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Urgatzi

5/29/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Ariznabarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ariznabarra71%

×Draw17%

Urgatzi12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AriznabarraExpected goals in this matchUrgatzi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.91

Ariznabarra

2.46

Urgatzi

0.91

Ariznabarra creates 170% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

0.33

1.48

allows per match

3.93

creates per match

Ariznabarra

1.00

Urgatzi

0.33

allows per match

Ariznabarra

1.48

Urgatzi

3.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ariznabarra+0.00on par

Urgatzi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariznabarra ↓

Urgatzi →

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ariznabarra or draw

88%

Ariznabarra or Urgatzi

83%

Draw or Urgatzi

29%

Winning margin

Ariznabarra wins by 2+

48%

Urgatzi wins by 2+

Team goals

Ariznabarra 1+ goals

91%

Ariznabarra 2+ goals

70%

Ariznabarra 3+ goals

44%

Urgatzi 1+ goals

60%

Urgatzi 2+ goals

23%

Urgatzi 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ariznabarra (draw refunded)

85%

Urgatzi (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ariznabarra at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Urgatzi away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ariznabarra attack 1.00 + Urgatzi defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.46

Urgatzi attack 0.33 + Ariznabarra defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ariznabarra scores more

71%

level

17%

Urgatzi scores more

12%

Ariznabarra at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ariznabarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff