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Ariznabarra vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Ariznabarra
Ariznabarra
CANC
00:00
Real Sociedad III
Real Sociedad III
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 35Estadio Ariznabarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ariznabarra31%
×Draw25%
Real Sociedad III45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariznabarra
1.26
Real Sociedad III
1.57

Real Sociedad III creates 25% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 44 away

creates per match

Ariznabarra
1.00
Real Sociedad III
1.66

allows per match

Ariznabarra
1.48
Real Sociedad III
1.52

finishing

Ariznabarra+0.00on par
Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariznabarra ↓

Real Sociedad III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ariznabarra or draw
55%
Ariznabarra or Real Sociedad III
75%
Draw or Real Sociedad III
69%

Winning margin

Ariznabarra wins by 2+
13%
Real Sociedad III wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ariznabarra 1+ goals
72%
Ariznabarra 2+ goals
36%
Ariznabarra 3+ goals
13%
Real Sociedad III 1+ goals
79%
Real Sociedad III 2+ goals
46%
Real Sociedad III 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ariznabarra (draw refunded)
41%
Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariznabarra at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariznabarra attack 1.00 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Ariznabarra defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ariznabarra scores more
31%
level
25%
Real Sociedad III scores more
45%

Real Sociedad III at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ariznabarra host Real Sociedad III

April 26, 2020: Ariznabarra take on Real Sociedad III in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ariznabarra host Real Sociedad III at Estadio Ariznabarra.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.