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Ariznabarra vs JD Somorrostro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Ariznabarra
Ariznabarra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
JD Somorrostro
JD Somorrostro
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Estadio Ariznabarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Ariznabarra33%
×Draw28%
JD Somorrostro40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariznabarra
1.13
JD Somorrostro
1.27

JD Somorrostro creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ariznabarra
1.00
JD Somorrostro
1.07

allows per match

Ariznabarra
1.48
JD Somorrostro
1.25

finishing

Ariznabarra+0.00on par
JD Somorrostro+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariznabarra ↓

JD Somorrostro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ariznabarra or draw
60%
Ariznabarra or JD Somorrostro
72%
Draw or JD Somorrostro
67%

Winning margin

Ariznabarra wins by 2+
13%
JD Somorrostro wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ariznabarra 1+ goals
68%
Ariznabarra 2+ goals
31%
Ariznabarra 3+ goals
11%
JD Somorrostro 1+ goals
72%
JD Somorrostro 2+ goals
36%
JD Somorrostro 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ariznabarra (draw refunded)
45%
JD Somorrostro (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariznabarra at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

JD Somorrostro away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariznabarra attack 1.00 + JD Somorrostro defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

JD Somorrostro attack 1.07 + Ariznabarra defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ariznabarra scores more
33%
level
28%
JD Somorrostro scores more
40%

JD Somorrostro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "JD Somorrostro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Ariznabarra 1–2 JD Somorrostro

JD Somorrostro beat Ariznabarra 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ariznabarra in Vitoria-Gasteiz.