Ariznabarra 1–2 Aurrerá Ondarroa: Result & Stats

Ariznabarra

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Aurrerá Ondarroa

5/16/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Ariznabarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ariznabarra39%

×Draw27%

Aurrerá Ondarroa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AriznabarraExpected goals in this matchAurrerá Ondarroa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.20

Ariznabarra

1.32

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.20

Ariznabarra creates 10% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 66 away

1.00

creates per match

0.92

1.48

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Ariznabarra

1.00

Aurrerá Ondarroa

0.92

allows per match

Ariznabarra

1.48

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ariznabarra+0.00on par

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariznabarra ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ariznabarra or draw

66%

Ariznabarra or Aurrerá Ondarroa

73%

Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa

61%

Winning margin

Ariznabarra wins by 2+

18%

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ariznabarra 1+ goals

73%

Ariznabarra 2+ goals

38%

Ariznabarra 3+ goals

15%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals

70%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals

34%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ariznabarra (draw refunded)

54%

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ariznabarra at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ariznabarra attack 1.00 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Ariznabarra defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ariznabarra scores more

39%

level

27%

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more

34%

Ariznabarra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ariznabarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff