Aritma Praha 1–1 Tochovice: Result & Stats

Aritma Praha

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tochovice

3/4/2023

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 16Areál Aritmy UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Aritma Praha67%

×Draw19%

Tochovice14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aritma PrahaExpected goals in this matchTochovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.90

Aritma Praha

2.23

Tochovice

0.90

Aritma Praha creates 148% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

2.13

creates per match

1.13

0.67

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Aritma Praha

2.13

Tochovice

1.13

allows per match

Aritma Praha

0.67

Tochovice

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aritma Praha+0.00on par

Tochovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aritma Praha ↓

Tochovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Aritma Praha or draw

86%

Aritma Praha or Tochovice

81%

Draw or Tochovice

33%

Winning margin

Aritma Praha wins by 2+

44%

Tochovice wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Aritma Praha 1+ goals

89%

Aritma Praha 2+ goals

65%

Aritma Praha 3+ goals

38%

Tochovice 1+ goals

59%

Tochovice 2+ goals

23%

Tochovice 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Aritma Praha (draw refunded)

83%

Tochovice (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aritma Praha at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Tochovice away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aritma Praha attack 2.13 + Tochovice defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.23

Tochovice attack 1.13 + Aritma Praha defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Aritma Praha scores more

67%

level

19%

Tochovice scores more

14%

Aritma Praha at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff