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Aritma Praha vs Tatran Rakovník — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
PST
14:30
Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
4/5/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 20Areál Aritmy UMT (Praha)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Aritma Praha72%
×Draw16%
Tatran Rakovník12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aritma Praha
2.58
Tatran Rakovník
0.94

Aritma Praha creates 174% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

creates per match

Aritma Praha
1.79
Tatran Rakovník
0.75

allows per match

Aritma Praha
1.13
Tatran Rakovník
3.38

finishing

Aritma Praha+0.00on par
Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aritma Praha ↓

Tatran Rakovník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Aritma Praha or draw
88%
Aritma Praha or Tatran Rakovník
84%
Draw or Tatran Rakovník
28%

Winning margin

Aritma Praha wins by 2+
50%
Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Aritma Praha 1+ goals
92%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
72%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
47%
Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
61%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
24%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
86%
Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aritma Praha at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

Tatran Rakovník away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aritma Praha attack 1.79 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.58

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.75 + Aritma Praha defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Aritma Praha scores more
72%
level
16%
Tatran Rakovník scores more
12%

Aritma Praha at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Aritma Praha host Tatran Rakovník

April 5, 2020: Aritma Praha take on Tatran Rakovník in 4. liga - Divizie B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Aritma Praha host Tatran Rakovník at Areál Aritmy UMT (Praha).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.