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Aritma Praha vs Sokol Lom — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
10/22/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 12Areál Aritmy UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Aritma Praha48%
×Draw23%
Sokol Lom29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aritma Praha
1.80
Sokol Lom
1.35

Aritma Praha creates 33% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 34 away

creates per match

Aritma Praha
2.13
Sokol Lom
2.03

allows per match

Aritma Praha
0.67
Sokol Lom
1.47

finishing

Aritma Praha+0.00on par
Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aritma Praha ↓

Sokol Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Aritma Praha or draw
71%
Aritma Praha or Sokol Lom
77%
Draw or Sokol Lom
52%

Winning margin

Aritma Praha wins by 2+
26%
Sokol Lom wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aritma Praha 1+ goals
83%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
54%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
27%
Sokol Lom 1+ goals
74%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
39%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
62%
Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aritma Praha at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Sokol Lom away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aritma Praha attack 2.13 + Sokol Lom defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.80

Sokol Lom attack 2.03 + Aritma Praha defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aritma Praha scores more
48%
level
23%
Sokol Lom scores more
29%

Aritma Praha at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aritma Praha vs Sokol Lom

Aritma Praha and Sokol Lom drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Areál Aritmy UMT in Praha.