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Aritma Praha vs Slavia Vejprnice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Slavia Vejprnice
Slavia Vejprnice
4/18/20254. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 22Areál Aritmy UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Aritma Praha77%
×Draw15%
Slavia Vejprnice8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aritma Praha
2.40
Slavia Vejprnice
0.60

Aritma Praha creates 300% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Aritma Praha
2.13
Slavia Vejprnice
0.53

allows per match

Aritma Praha
0.67
Slavia Vejprnice
2.67

finishing

Aritma Praha+0.00on par
Slavia Vejprnice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aritma Praha ↓

Slavia Vejprnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Aritma Praha or draw
92%
Aritma Praha or Slavia Vejprnice
85%
Draw or Slavia Vejprnice
23%

Winning margin

Aritma Praha wins by 2+
54%
Slavia Vejprnice wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Aritma Praha 1+ goals
91%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
69%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
42%
Slavia Vejprnice 1+ goals
45%
Slavia Vejprnice 2+ goals
12%
Slavia Vejprnice 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
91%
Slavia Vejprnice (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aritma Praha at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Slavia Vejprnice away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aritma Praha attack 2.13 + Slavia Vejprnice defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.40

Slavia Vejprnice attack 0.53 + Aritma Praha defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Aritma Praha scores more
77%
level
15%
Slavia Vejprnice scores more
8%

Aritma Praha at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aritma Praha vs Slavia Vejprnice

Aritma Praha beat Slavia Vejprnice 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Areál Aritmy UMT in Praha.