Aris 3–0 Karmiotissa: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Aris

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Karmiotissa

2/10/2024

1. Division · Round 24Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Aris61%

×Draw22%

Karmiotissa17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArisExpected goals in this matchKarmiotissa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.90

Aris

1.90

Karmiotissa

0.90

Aris creates 111% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 76 away

1.80

creates per match

0.96

0.83

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Aris

1.80

Karmiotissa

0.96

allows per match

Aris

0.83

Karmiotissa

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aris+0.00on par

Karmiotissa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aris ↓

Karmiotissa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Aris or draw

83%

Aris or Karmiotissa

78%

Draw or Karmiotissa

39%

Winning margin

Aris wins by 2+

36%

Karmiotissa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Aris 1+ goals

85%

Aris 2+ goals

56%

Aris 3+ goals

29%

Karmiotissa 1+ goals

59%

Karmiotissa 2+ goals

23%

Karmiotissa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Aris (draw refunded)

78%

Karmiotissa (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aris at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.83 · 88 matches

Karmiotissa away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.01 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aris attack 1.80 + Karmiotissa defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.90

Karmiotissa attack 0.96 + Aris defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Aris scores more

61%

level

22%

Karmiotissa scores more

17%

Aris at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Aris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff