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Aris vs Apollon Limassol — 1. Division 2019

Aris
Aris
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Apollon Limassol
Apollon Limassol
8/23/20251. Division1. Division · Round 1Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Aris45%
×Draw26%
Apollon Limassol29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aris
1.44
Apollon Limassol
1.10

Aris creates 31% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 119 away

creates per match

Aris
1.80
Apollon Limassol
1.38

allows per match

Aris
0.83
Apollon Limassol
1.08

finishing

Aris+0.00on par
Apollon Limassol+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aris ↓

Apollon Limassol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Aris or draw
71%
Aris or Apollon Limassol
74%
Draw or Apollon Limassol
55%

Winning margin

Aris wins by 2+
22%
Apollon Limassol wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aris 1+ goals
76%
Aris 2+ goals
42%
Aris 3+ goals
18%
Apollon Limassol 1+ goals
67%
Apollon Limassol 2+ goals
30%
Apollon Limassol 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aris (draw refunded)
61%
Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aris at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.83 · 88 matches

Apollon Limassol away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.08 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aris attack 1.80 + Apollon Limassol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.44

Apollon Limassol attack 1.38 + Aris defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aris scores more
45%
level
26%
Apollon Limassol scores more
29%

Aris at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Aris 3–1 Apollon Limassol

Aris beat Apollon Limassol 3-1 in 1. Division on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Alphamega Stadium in Kolossi.