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Aris vs AEL — Cup 2019

Aris
Aris
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AEL
AELadvanced
1/21/2026CupCup · Round of 16Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Aris21%
×Draw23%
AEL56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aris
1.01
AEL
1.79

AEL creates 77% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Aris
0.75
AEL
1.33

allows per match

Aris
2.25
AEL
1.27

finishing

Aris+0.00on par
AEL+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aris ↓

AEL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Aris or draw
44%
Aris or AEL
77%
Draw or AEL
79%

Winning margin

Aris wins by 2+
8%
AEL wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Aris 1+ goals
64%
Aris 2+ goals
27%
Aris 3+ goals
8%
AEL 1+ goals
83%
AEL 2+ goals
53%
AEL 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Aris (draw refunded)
28%
AEL (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aris at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

AEL away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aris attack 0.75 + AEL defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.01

AEL attack 1.33 + Aris defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Aris scores more
21%
level
23%
AEL scores more
56%

AEL at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aris vs AEL

AEL beat Aris 1-0 in Cup on January 21, 2026.

The match was played at Alphamega Stadium in Kolossi.