Aris 1–0 AE Zakakiou: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Aris

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AE Zakakiou

12/22/2023

1. Division · Round 16Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Aris61%

×Draw22%

AE Zakakiou18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArisExpected goals in this matchAE Zakakiou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.94

Aris

1.95

AE Zakakiou

0.94

Aris creates 107% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 20 away

1.80

creates per match

1.05

0.83

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Aris

1.80

AE Zakakiou

1.05

allows per match

Aris

0.83

AE Zakakiou

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aris+0.00on par

AE Zakakiou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aris ↓

AE Zakakiou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Aris or draw

82%

Aris or AE Zakakiou

78%

Draw or AE Zakakiou

39%

Winning margin

Aris wins by 2+

36%

AE Zakakiou wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Aris 1+ goals

86%

Aris 2+ goals

58%

Aris 3+ goals

31%

AE Zakakiou 1+ goals

61%

AE Zakakiou 2+ goals

24%

AE Zakakiou 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Aris (draw refunded)

78%

AE Zakakiou (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aris at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.83 · 88 matches

AE Zakakiou away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aris attack 1.80 + AE Zakakiou defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.95

AE Zakakiou attack 1.05 + Aris defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Aris scores more

61%

level

22%

AE Zakakiou scores more

18%

Aris at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Aris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff