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Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK — Super League 1 2018

Aris Thessalonikis
Aris Thessalonikis
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
PAOK
PAOK
5/19/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Championship Round - 10Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Aris Thessalonikis36%
×Draw27%
PAOK38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aris Thessalonikis
1.27
PAOK
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 137 away

creates per match

Aris Thessalonikis
1.50
PAOK
1.72

allows per match

Aris Thessalonikis
0.91
PAOK
1.03

finishing

Aris Thessalonikis+0.00on par
PAOK+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aris Thessalonikis ↓

PAOK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Aris Thessalonikis or draw
62%
Aris Thessalonikis or PAOK
73%
Draw or PAOK
64%

Winning margin

Aris Thessalonikis wins by 2+
16%
PAOK wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Aris Thessalonikis 1+ goals
72%
Aris Thessalonikis 2+ goals
36%
Aris Thessalonikis 3+ goals
14%
PAOK 1+ goals
73%
PAOK 2+ goals
38%
PAOK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aris Thessalonikis (draw refunded)
49%
PAOK (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aris Thessalonikis at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.91 · 137 matches

PAOK away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.50 + PAOK defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.27

PAOK attack 1.72 + Aris Thessalonikis defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aris Thessalonikis scores more
36%
level
27%
PAOK scores more
38%

PAOK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Aris Thessalonikis 1–2 PAOK

PAOK beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 in Super League 1 on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Thessaloníki.