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Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus — Super League 1 2018

Aris Thessalonikis
Aris Thessalonikis
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus
1/21/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 19Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Aris Thessalonikis31%
×Draw27%
Olympiakos Piraeus42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aris Thessalonikis
1.09
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.31

Olympiakos Piraeus creates 20% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 137 away

creates per match

Aris Thessalonikis
1.50
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.71

allows per match

Aris Thessalonikis
0.91
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.69

finishing

Aris Thessalonikis+0.00on par
Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aris Thessalonikis ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aris Thessalonikis or draw
58%
Aris Thessalonikis or Olympiakos Piraeus
73%
Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus
69%

Winning margin

Aris Thessalonikis wins by 2+
12%
Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Aris Thessalonikis 1+ goals
66%
Aris Thessalonikis 2+ goals
30%
Aris Thessalonikis 3+ goals
10%
Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals
73%
Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals
38%
Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aris Thessalonikis (draw refunded)
43%
Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aris Thessalonikis at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.91 · 137 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.69 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.50 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.09

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.71 + Aris Thessalonikis defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aris Thessalonikis scores more
31%
level
27%
Olympiakos Piraeus scores more
42%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 in Super League 1 on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Thessaloníki.