Aris Thessalonikis 2–2 Lamia: Result & Stats

Aris Thessalonikis

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Lamia

12/20/2023

Super League 1 · Round 15Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Aris Thessalonikis54%

×Draw26%

Lamia20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aris ThessalonikisExpected goals in this matchLamia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.80

Aris Thessalonikis

1.52

Lamia

0.80

Aris Thessalonikis creates 90% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 119 away

1.50

creates per match

0.70

0.91

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Aris Thessalonikis

1.50

Lamia

0.70

allows per match

Aris Thessalonikis

0.91

Lamia

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aris Thessalonikis+0.00on par

Lamia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aris Thessalonikis ↓

Lamia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Aris Thessalonikis or draw

80%

Aris Thessalonikis or Lamia

74%

Draw or Lamia

46%

Winning margin

Aris Thessalonikis wins by 2+

28%

Lamia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Aris Thessalonikis 1+ goals

78%

Aris Thessalonikis 2+ goals

45%

Aris Thessalonikis 3+ goals

20%

Lamia 1+ goals

55%

Lamia 2+ goals

19%

Lamia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Aris Thessalonikis (draw refunded)

73%

Lamia (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aris Thessalonikis at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.91 · 137 matches

Lamia away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.54 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.50 + Lamia defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lamia attack 0.70 + Aris Thessalonikis defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Aris Thessalonikis scores more

54%

level

26%

Lamia scores more

20%

Aris Thessalonikis at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Aris Thessalonikis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff