Aris Thessalonikis 2–0 Kallithea: Result & Stats

Aris Thessalonikis

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kallithea

Manu García 88'

Bernabé Barragán 65' (OG)

10/20/2024

Super League 1 · Round 8Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aris Thessalonikis50%

×Draw27%

Kallithea23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aris ThessalonikisExpected goals in this matchKallithea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.90

Aris Thessalonikis

1.45

Kallithea

0.90

Aris Thessalonikis creates 61% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 18 away

1.51

creates per match

0.89

0.91

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Aris Thessalonikis

1.51

Kallithea

0.89

allows per match

Aris Thessalonikis

0.91

Kallithea

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aris Thessalonikis+0.00on par

Kallithea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aris Thessalonikis ↓

Kallithea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Aris Thessalonikis or draw

77%

Aris Thessalonikis or Kallithea

73%

Draw or Kallithea

50%

Winning margin

Aris Thessalonikis wins by 2+

25%

Kallithea wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Aris Thessalonikis 1+ goals

77%

Aris Thessalonikis 2+ goals

42%

Aris Thessalonikis 3+ goals

18%

Kallithea 1+ goals

59%

Kallithea 2+ goals

23%

Kallithea 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Aris Thessalonikis (draw refunded)

68%

Kallithea (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aris Thessalonikis at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.91 · 133 matches

Kallithea away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.51 + Kallithea defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kallithea attack 0.89 + Aris Thessalonikis defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aris Thessalonikis scores more

50%

level

27%

Kallithea scores more

23%

Aris Thessalonikis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aris Thessalonikis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Manu García

Aris Thessalonikis · M

8.9

Match Events

3'

Triantafyllos Pasalidis

12'

Nicolas Isimat-Mirin

34'

Triantafyllos Pasalidis

34'

Triantafyllos Pasalidis

38'

Javier Matilla

39'

J. Mejías← R. Uldriķis

45'

JuankarPenalty cancelled

46'

M. Ndiaye← Javier Matilla

55'

Monchu

59'

G. Fetfatzidis← M. Suleymanov

65'

Bernabé BarragánOwn goal

72'

G. Loukinas← Demethryus

73'

M. Valbuena← A. Mercati

75'

P. Sisto← C. Diandy

75'

V. Darida← J. Cifuentes

85'

N. Nikolić← P. Soiri

88'

R. Quaison← Loren Morón

88'

Fran Vélez← Manu García

88'

Manu García↳ Loren Morón

90+2'

Mor Ndiaye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArisKallithea

Overview

66%Possession34%

22Total Shots4

10Corners0

9Fouls15

Shots

22Total Shots4

8On Target2

10Off Target2

4Blocked0

11Inside Box2

11Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

586Total Passes304

523Accurate Passes228

89%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls15

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2