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Ario Eslamshahr vs Shahrdari Astara — Azadegan League 2018

Ario Eslamshahr
Ario Eslamshahr
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
12/28/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ario Eslamshahr58%
×Draw30%
Shahrdari Astara12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ario Eslamshahr
1.25
Shahrdari Astara
0.41

Ario Eslamshahr creates 205% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ario Eslamshahr
0.78
Shahrdari Astara
0.40

allows per match

Ario Eslamshahr
0.41
Shahrdari Astara
1.71

finishing

Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par
Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ario Eslamshahr ↓

Shahrdari Astara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Ario Eslamshahr or draw
88%
Ario Eslamshahr or Shahrdari Astara
70%
Draw or Shahrdari Astara
42%

Winning margin

Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+
27%
Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals
71%
Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals
36%
Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals
13%
Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
34%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
6%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)
83%
Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ario Eslamshahr at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.41 · 51 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ario Eslamshahr scores more
58%
level
30%
Shahrdari Astara scores more
12%

Ario Eslamshahr at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ario Eslamshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Ario Eslamshahr 2–0 Shahrdari Astara

Ario Eslamshahr beat Shahrdari Astara 2-0 in Azadegan League on December 28, 2024.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Eslamshahr.