Ario Eslamshahr 2–0 Shahin Bandar Ameri

Ario Eslamshahr

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shahin Bandar Ameri

5/30/2024

Azadegan League · Round 32Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ario Eslamshahr41%

×Draw34%

Shahin Bandar Ameri25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ario EslamshahrExpected goals in this matchShahin Bandar Ameri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.70

Ario Eslamshahr

0.99

Shahin Bandar Ameri

0.70

Ario Eslamshahr creates 41% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 10 away

0.78

creates per match

1.00

0.41

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Ario Eslamshahr

0.78

Shahin Bandar Ameri

1.00

allows per match

Ario Eslamshahr

0.41

Shahin Bandar Ameri

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par

Shahin Bandar Ameri+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ario Eslamshahr ↓

Shahin Bandar Ameri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Ario Eslamshahr or draw

75%

Ario Eslamshahr or Shahin Bandar Ameri

66%

Draw or Shahin Bandar Ameri

59%

Winning margin

Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+

16%

Shahin Bandar Ameri wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals

63%

Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals

26%

Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals

8%

Shahin Bandar Ameri 1+ goals

50%

Shahin Bandar Ameri 2+ goals

16%

Shahin Bandar Ameri 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)

62%

Shahin Bandar Ameri (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ario Eslamshahr at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.41 · 51 matches

Shahin Bandar Ameri away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Shahin Bandar Ameri defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.99

Shahin Bandar Ameri attack 1.00 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ario Eslamshahr scores more

41%

level

34%

Shahin Bandar Ameri scores more

25%

Ario Eslamshahr at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ario Eslamshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff