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Ario Eslamshahr vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

Ario Eslamshahr
Ario Eslamshahr
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
11/14/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ario Eslamshahr43%
×Draw35%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ario Eslamshahr
0.96
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.59

Ario Eslamshahr creates 63% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ario Eslamshahr
0.78
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

Ario Eslamshahr
0.41
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.15

finishing

Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ario Eslamshahr ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Ario Eslamshahr or draw
78%
Ario Eslamshahr or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
65%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
57%

Winning margin

Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+
16%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals
62%
Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals
25%
Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals
7%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
45%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
12%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)
66%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ario Eslamshahr at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.41 · 51 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.96

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ario Eslamshahr scores more
43%
level
35%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
22%

Ario Eslamshahr at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ario Eslamshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Ario Eslamshahr 0–0 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Ario Eslamshahr and Khooshe Talaee Saveh drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on November 14, 2023.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Eslamshahr.