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Ario Eslamshahr vs Damash Gilanian — Azadegan League 2018

Ario Eslamshahr
Ario Eslamshahr
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
3/11/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 25Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ario Eslamshahr55%
×Draw31%
Damash Gilanian14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ario Eslamshahr
1.21
Damash Gilanian
0.45

Ario Eslamshahr creates 169% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 65 away

creates per match

Ario Eslamshahr
0.78
Damash Gilanian
0.49

allows per match

Ario Eslamshahr
0.41
Damash Gilanian
1.65

finishing

Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par
Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ario Eslamshahr ↓

Damash Gilanian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Ario Eslamshahr or draw
86%
Ario Eslamshahr or Damash Gilanian
69%
Draw or Damash Gilanian
45%

Winning margin

Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+
25%
Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals
70%
Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals
34%
Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals
12%
Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
36%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
8%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)
80%
Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ario Eslamshahr at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.41 · 51 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.21

Damash Gilanian attack 0.49 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ario Eslamshahr scores more
55%
level
31%
Damash Gilanian scores more
14%

Ario Eslamshahr at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ario Eslamshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Ario Eslamshahr 1–0 Damash Gilanian

Ario Eslamshahr beat Damash Gilanian 1-0 in Azadegan League on March 11, 2025.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Eslamshahr.