Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ariana vs Olympique Béja — Cup 2019

Ariana
Ariana
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Olympique Béja
Olympique Béja
S. Nasrallah 13'
F. Maâouani 51'
5/30/2021CupCup · 8th FinalsStade Municipal d'Ariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ariana49%
×Draw30%
Olympique Béja21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariana
1.21
Olympique Béja
0.67

Ariana creates 81% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ariana
1.67
Olympique Béja
1.00

allows per match

Ariana
0.33
Olympique Béja
0.75

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par
Olympique Béja+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

Olympique Béja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ariana or draw
79%
Ariana or Olympique Béja
70%
Draw or Olympique Béja
51%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+
22%
Olympique Béja wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals
70%
Ariana 2+ goals
34%
Ariana 3+ goals
12%
Olympique Béja 1+ goals
49%
Olympique Béja 2+ goals
15%
Olympique Béja 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)
71%
Olympique Béja (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Olympique Béja away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 1.67 + Olympique Béja defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Olympique Béja attack 1.00 + Ariana defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ariana scores more
49%
level
30%
Olympique Béja scores more
21%

Ariana at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
S. Nasrallah
28'
S. Nasrallah
51'
F. Maâouani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Ariana 1–1 Olympique Béja

Ariana and Olympique Béja drew 1-1 in Cup on May 30, 2021.

Goals: S. Nasrallah (13'), F. Maâouani (51').

The match was played at Stade Municipal d'Ariana in Ariana.