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Ariana vs Menzel Bourguiba — Ligue 2 2020

Ariana
Ariana
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Menzel Bourguiba
Menzel Bourguiba
1/4/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade Municipal d'Ariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ariana64%
×Draw24%
Menzel Bourguiba11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariana
1.61
Menzel Bourguiba
0.51

Ariana creates 216% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 26 away

creates per match

Ariana
1.42
Menzel Bourguiba
0.27

allows per match

Ariana
0.74
Menzel Bourguiba
1.81

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par
Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

Menzel Bourguiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ariana or draw
89%
Ariana or Menzel Bourguiba
76%
Draw or Menzel Bourguiba
36%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+
36%
Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals
80%
Ariana 2+ goals
48%
Ariana 3+ goals
22%
Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals
40%
Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals
9%
Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)
85%
Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.74 · 38 matches

Menzel Bourguiba away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 1.42 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

Menzel Bourguiba attack 0.27 + Ariana defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ariana scores more
64%
level
24%
Menzel Bourguiba scores more
11%

Ariana at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Ariana 1–0 Menzel Bourguiba

Ariana beat Menzel Bourguiba 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal d'Ariana in Ariana.