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Ariana vs Mégrine — Ligue 2 2020

Ariana
Ariana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mégrine
Mégrine
12/28/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Municipal d'Ariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ariana46%
×Draw26%
Mégrine28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariana
1.48
Mégrine
1.10

Ariana creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 26 away

creates per match

Ariana
1.42
Mégrine
1.46

allows per match

Ariana
0.74
Mégrine
1.54

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par
Mégrine+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

Mégrine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ariana or draw
72%
Ariana or Mégrine
74%
Draw or Mégrine
54%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+
23%
Mégrine wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals
77%
Ariana 2+ goals
43%
Ariana 3+ goals
19%
Mégrine 1+ goals
67%
Mégrine 2+ goals
30%
Mégrine 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)
62%
Mégrine (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.74 · 38 matches

Mégrine away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 1.42 + Mégrine defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mégrine attack 1.46 + Ariana defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ariana scores more
46%
level
26%
Mégrine scores more
28%

Ariana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ariana vs Mégrine

Ariana and Mégrine drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on December 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal d'Ariana in Ariana.