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Ariana vs Ljungskile SK — Ettan - Södra 2019

Ariana
Ariana
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Ljungskile SK
Ljungskile SK
5/24/2025Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 9Hyllie IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ariana44%
×Draw24%
Ljungskile SK32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariana
1.63
Ljungskile SK
1.35

Ariana creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 90 away

creates per match

Ariana
1.80
Ljungskile SK
1.51

allows per match

Ariana
1.20
Ljungskile SK
1.46

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par
Ljungskile SK+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

Ljungskile SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ariana or draw
68%
Ariana or Ljungskile SK
76%
Draw or Ljungskile SK
56%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+
23%
Ljungskile SK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals
80%
Ariana 2+ goals
48%
Ariana 3+ goals
22%
Ljungskile SK 1+ goals
74%
Ljungskile SK 2+ goals
39%
Ljungskile SK 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)
58%
Ljungskile SK (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

Ljungskile SK away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.46 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 1.80 + Ljungskile SK defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ljungskile SK attack 1.51 + Ariana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ariana scores more
44%
level
24%
Ljungskile SK scores more
32%

Ariana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ariana vs Ljungskile SK

Ariana beat Ljungskile SK 3-2 in Ettan - Södra on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Hyllie IP in Malmö.