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Ariana vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane — Ligue 2 2020

Ariana
Ariana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
4/14/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade Municipal d'Ariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Ariana39%
×Draw30%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariana
1.10
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.95

Ariana creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 23 away

creates per match

Ariana
1.42
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.17

allows per match

Ariana
0.74
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.78

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ariana or draw
69%
Ariana or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
70%
Draw or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
61%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+
16%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals
67%
Ariana 2+ goals
30%
Ariana 3+ goals
10%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
61%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
25%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)
56%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.74 · 38 matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 1.42 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.10

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 1.17 + Ariana defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ariana scores more
39%
level
30%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
31%

Ariana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ariana vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane beat Ariana 1-0 in Ligue 2 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal d'Ariana in Ariana.