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Ariana vs IFK Trelleborg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ariana
Ariana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
IFK Trelleborg
IFK Trelleborg
1/31/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ariana55%
×Draw24%
IFK Trelleborg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariana
1.75
IFK Trelleborg
1.00

Ariana creates 75% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ariana
2.50
IFK Trelleborg
1.25

allows per match

Ariana
0.75
IFK Trelleborg
1.00

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par
IFK Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

IFK Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ariana or draw
78%
Ariana or IFK Trelleborg
76%
Draw or IFK Trelleborg
45%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+
31%
IFK Trelleborg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals
83%
Ariana 2+ goals
52%
Ariana 3+ goals
25%
IFK Trelleborg 1+ goals
63%
IFK Trelleborg 2+ goals
26%
IFK Trelleborg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)
72%
IFK Trelleborg (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

IFK Trelleborg away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 2.50 + IFK Trelleborg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

IFK Trelleborg attack 1.25 + Ariana defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ariana scores more
55%
level
24%
IFK Trelleborg scores more
22%

Ariana at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Ariana 2–0 IFK Trelleborg

Ariana beat IFK Trelleborg 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2026.