Ariana 3–0 Hässleholms IF: Result & Stats

Ariana

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hässleholms IF

B. Nouri 90' (pen)

E. Karaman 61'

J. Brannefalk 29'

4/11/2025

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 3Hyllie IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ariana39%

×Draw24%

Hässleholms IF37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArianaExpected goals in this matchHässleholms IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.53

Ariana

1.56

Hässleholms IF

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 22 away

1.80

creates per match

1.86

1.20

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Ariana

1.80

Hässleholms IF

1.86

allows per match

Ariana

1.20

Hässleholms IF

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par

Hässleholms IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

Hässleholms IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ariana or draw

63%

Ariana or Hässleholms IF

76%

Draw or Hässleholms IF

61%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+

19%

Hässleholms IF wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals

79%

Ariana 2+ goals

46%

Ariana 3+ goals

21%

Hässleholms IF 1+ goals

78%

Hässleholms IF 2+ goals

45%

Hässleholms IF 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)

51%

Hässleholms IF (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

Hässleholms IF away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 1.80 + Hässleholms IF defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hässleholms IF attack 1.86 + Ariana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ariana scores more

39%

level

24%

Hässleholms IF scores more

37%

Ariana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

A. Sandstrom

29'

J. Brannefalk

45+2'

M. Ljungqvist

46'

F. Freij← A. Nedzibovic

50'

P. Andersson

55'

L. Wettergren← V. Kristiansson

55'

V. Castro← V. Andersson

61'

E. Karaman

62'

A. Sjostrand Bjurnemark← J. Brannefalk

71'

P. Simba← A. Sandstrom

72'

T. Ekstrom

72'

C. Burehed← J. Nilsson

72'

F. Akesson Linderoth← J. Persson Ahstedt

73'

T. Bermudez

79'

A. Branting

81'

V. Castro

90'

B. NouriPenalty

Ariana

Hässleholms

1

Bengtsson

6

Terzic

2

Branting

8

▼

Ahstedt

3

Arvidsson

4

▼

5

7

9

10

▼

15

1

2

4

16

8

⚽

▼

Brannefal

6

⚽

Nouri

7

▼

Sandstrom

10

Reuterski

22

⚽

Karaman

36

▼

Kristians

99

▼

Andersson

Manager: A. Grimberg

55'▲L. Wettergren←▼V. Kristiansson

55'▲V. Castro←▼V. Andersson

62'▲A. Sjostrand Bjurnemark←▼J. Brannefalk

71'▲P. Simba←▼A. Sandstrom

Ariana substitutes

33Nilsson17Abuzayda3Bjurnemark20Simba14Wettergren77Castro15Prica

Manager: B. Rexhepi

46'▲F. Freij←▼A. Nedzibovic

72'▲C. Burehed←▼J. Nilsson

72'▲F. Akesson Linderoth←▼J. Persson Ahstedt

Hässleholms IF substitutes

31Larsson17Ljungqvist18Ahstedt19Freij21Burehed26Olofsson16Linderoth

Ettan - Södra: Ariana 3–0 Hässleholms IF

Ariana beat Hässleholms IF 3-0 in Ettan - Södra on April 11, 2025.

Goals: J. Brannefalk (29'), E. Karaman (61'), B. Nouri (90' pen).

The match was played at Hyllie IP in Malmö.

Ariana vs Hässleholms IF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ettan - Södra: Ariana 3–0 Hässleholms IF