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Ariana vs EM Mahdia — Ligue 2 2020

Ariana
Ariana
FT
0 – 1
EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
10/26/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Municipal d'Ariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ariana51%
×Draw28%
EM Mahdia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariana
1.34
EM Mahdia
0.73

Ariana creates 84% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 55 away

creates per match

Ariana
1.42
EM Mahdia
0.73

allows per match

Ariana
0.74
EM Mahdia
1.27

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par
EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

EM Mahdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ariana or draw
80%
Ariana or EM Mahdia
72%
Draw or EM Mahdia
49%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+
25%
EM Mahdia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals
74%
Ariana 2+ goals
39%
Ariana 3+ goals
15%
EM Mahdia 1+ goals
52%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
17%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)
72%
EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.74 · 38 matches

EM Mahdia away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 1.42 + EM Mahdia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

EM Mahdia attack 0.73 + Ariana defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ariana scores more
51%
level
28%
EM Mahdia scores more
20%

Ariana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ariana vs EM Mahdia

EM Mahdia beat Ariana 1-0 in Ligue 2 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal d'Ariana in Ariana.