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Ariana vs Asarum — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Ariana
Ariana
FT
4 – 0
Asarum
Asarum
4/16/2022Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 3Hyllie IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ariana59%
×Draw20%
Asarum21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariana
2.16
Asarum
1.22

Ariana creates 77% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 47 away

creates per match

Ariana
2.15
Asarum
1.51

allows per match

Ariana
0.92
Asarum
2.17

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par
Asarum+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

Asarum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ariana or draw
79%
Ariana or Asarum
80%
Draw or Asarum
41%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+
36%
Asarum wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals
88%
Ariana 2+ goals
63%
Ariana 3+ goals
36%
Asarum 1+ goals
70%
Asarum 2+ goals
34%
Asarum 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)
74%
Asarum (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Asarum away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.17 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 2.15 + Asarum defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.16

Asarum attack 1.51 + Ariana defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ariana scores more
59%
level
20%
Asarum scores more
21%

Ariana at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ariana 4 – 0 Asarum

Ariana beat Asarum 4-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Hyllie IP in Limhamn.