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Ariana vs AS Gabes — Cup 2019

Ariana
Ariana
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Gabes
AS Gabes
11/9/2019CupCup · 1st Preliminary RoundStade Municipal d'Ariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ariana58%
×Draw27%
AS Gabes15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariana
1.42
AS Gabes
0.58

Ariana creates 145% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ariana
1.67
AS Gabes
0.83

allows per match

Ariana
0.33
AS Gabes
1.17

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par
AS Gabes+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

AS Gabes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ariana or draw
85%
Ariana or AS Gabes
73%
Draw or AS Gabes
42%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+
29%
AS Gabes wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals
76%
Ariana 2+ goals
41%
Ariana 3+ goals
17%
AS Gabes 1+ goals
44%
AS Gabes 2+ goals
12%
AS Gabes 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)
79%
AS Gabes (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

AS Gabes away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 1.67 + AS Gabes defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

AS Gabes attack 0.83 + Ariana defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ariana scores more
58%
level
27%
AS Gabes scores more
15%

Ariana at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ariana vs AS Gabes

Ariana and AS Gabes drew 0-0 in Cup on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal d'Ariana in Ariana.