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Ariana vs Angelholms FF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ariana
Ariana
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Angelholms FF
Angelholms FF
2/28/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ariana82%
×Draw13%
Angelholms FF5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariana
2.50
Angelholms FF
0.46

Ariana creates 443% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ariana
2.50
Angelholms FF
0.17

allows per match

Ariana
0.75
Angelholms FF
2.50

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par
Angelholms FF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

Angelholms FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ariana or draw
95%
Ariana or Angelholms FF
87%
Draw or Angelholms FF
18%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+
59%
Angelholms FF wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals
92%
Ariana 2+ goals
71%
Ariana 3+ goals
45%
Angelholms FF 1+ goals
37%
Angelholms FF 2+ goals
8%
Angelholms FF 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)
94%
Angelholms FF (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Angelholms FF away — creates 0.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 2.50 + Angelholms FF defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Angelholms FF attack 0.17 + Ariana defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Ariana scores more
82%
level
13%
Angelholms FF scores more
5%

Ariana at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Ariana 3–0 Angelholms FF

Ariana beat Angelholms FF 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 28, 2026.