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Arges Pitesti vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga I 2026

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
A. Compagno 75', 3'
8/12/2022Liga ILiga I · Round 5Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Arges Pitesti39%
×Draw29%
U Craiova 194833%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.18
U Craiova 1948
1.06

Arges Pitesti creates 11% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 59 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.05
U Craiova 1948
1.02

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
1.11
U Craiova 1948
1.31

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
67%
Arges Pitesti or U Craiova 1948
71%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
61%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
16%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
69%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
33%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
12%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
65%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
29%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
54%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 80 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.05 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.02 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
39%
level
29%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
33%

Arges Pitesti at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Compagno
11'
S. Sidibe← W. Baeten
16'
Ricardo Grigore
36'
M. Constantin← G. Turda
46'
A. Calcan← J. Donisa
47'
Andreas Calcan
54'
Fábio Vianna← M. Cestor
67'
F. Marquet← G. Iancu
73'
R. Covaci← A. Ișfan
74'
E. Célestine← D. Meza Colli
75'
A. Compagno↳ F. Marquet
78'
Sekou Sidibe
88'
K. Papadopoulos← A. Chițu
90+6'
Kyriakos Papadopoulos

Possession

42%Arges

Shots

11Arges

Statistics

ArgesU
Overview
42%Possession58%
11Total Shots7
6Corners3
16Fouls7
Shots
11Total Shots7
3On Target4
7Off Target3
Passing
42%Possession58%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls7
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Liga I: Arges Pitesti 0–2 U Craiova 1948

U Craiova 1948 beat Arges Pitesti 2-0 in Liga I on August 12, 2022.

Goals: A. Compagno (3', 75').

U Craiova 1948 controlled possession (58%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin in Piteşti.