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Arges Pitesti vs Sportul Snagov — Liga II 2018

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
FT
3 – 0
Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
12/6/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 21Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Arges Pitesti55%
×Draw24%
Sportul Snagov20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.69
Sportul Snagov
0.92

Arges Pitesti creates 84% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 30 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.61
Sportul Snagov
1.10

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
0.73
Sportul Snagov
1.77

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Sportul Snagov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
80%
Arges Pitesti or Sportul Snagov
76%
Draw or Sportul Snagov
45%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
30%
Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
82%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
50%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
24%
Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
60%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
23%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
73%
Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
55%
level
24%
Sportul Snagov scores more
20%

Arges Pitesti at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Arges Pitesti 3–0 Sportul Snagov

Arges Pitesti beat Sportul Snagov 3-0 in Liga II on December 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin in Piteşti.