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Arges Pitesti vs Progresul Spartac — Liga II 2018

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Progresul Spartac
Progresul Spartac
3/2/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 17Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Arges Pitesti57%
×Draw24%
Progresul Spartac19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.65
Progresul Spartac
0.82

Arges Pitesti creates 101% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 25 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.61
Progresul Spartac
0.92

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
0.73
Progresul Spartac
1.68

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
Progresul Spartac+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Progresul Spartac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
81%
Arges Pitesti or Progresul Spartac
76%
Draw or Progresul Spartac
43%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
31%
Progresul Spartac wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
81%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
49%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
23%
Progresul Spartac 1+ goals
56%
Progresul Spartac 2+ goals
20%
Progresul Spartac 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
75%
Progresul Spartac (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Progresul Spartac away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + Progresul Spartac defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65

Progresul Spartac attack 0.92 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
57%
level
24%
Progresul Spartac scores more
19%

Arges Pitesti at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arges Pitesti vs Progresul Spartac

Arges Pitesti beat Progresul Spartac 1-0 in Liga II on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Mioveni.