Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arges Pitesti vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga I 2026

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
Preview
18:30
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
7/24/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 2
Big match
46%
Arges Pitesti
model favours
46%29%25%

Petrolul Ploiesti score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Arges Pitesti46%
×Draw29%
Petrolul Ploiesti25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.29
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.86

Arges Pitesti creates 50% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.07
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.81

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
0.92
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.50

finishing

Arges Pitesti-0.32scores less
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.03on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
75%
Arges Pitesti or Petrolul Ploiesti
71%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
54%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
21%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
72%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
37%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
14%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
58%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
21%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
65%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.07 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.81 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
46%
level
29%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
25%

Arges Pitesti at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 75% of Petrolul Ploiesti’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Arges Pitesti
Defensively solid
Petrolul Ploiesti
Balanced
44%Possession46%
70%Pass accuracy75%
9.2ShotsBiggest gap11.2
1.01xG1.00
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Arges PitestiPetrolul Ploiesti

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Arges Pitesti
1
Draws
4
Petrolul Ploiesti
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 38%
1–20–13–00–10–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Pitesti
LDWWW
Ploiesti
WDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arges Pitesti face Petrolul Ploiesti (Liga I)

Liga I returns with Arges Pitesti hosting Petrolul Ploiesti. Match starts July 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.