Arges Pitesti 0–1 Petrolul Ploiesti: Result & Stats

Arges Pitesti

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Petrolul Ploiesti

A. Chica-Rosa 63'

10/4/2025

Liga I · Round 12Stadionul Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Arges Pitesti46%

×Draw29%

Petrolul Ploiesti25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arges PitestiExpected goals in this matchPetrolul Ploiesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.86

Arges Pitesti

1.29

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.86

Arges Pitesti creates 50% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

1.07

creates per match

0.81

0.92

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Arges Pitesti

1.07

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.81

allows per match

Arges Pitesti

0.92

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.50

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Arges Pitesti-0.32scores less

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.03on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw

75%

Arges Pitesti or Petrolul Ploiesti

71%

Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti

54%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

21%

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

72%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

37%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

14%

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

58%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

21%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

65%

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.07 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.81 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more

46%

level

29%

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

25%

Arges Pitesti at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

Caio Ferreira

Arges Pitesti · F

7.9

Match Events

17'

Ricardo Matos

61'

I. Tolea← A. Mateiu

63'

A. Chica-Rosa↳ R. Salceanu

67'

V. Rata← I. Radescu

67'

R. Moldoveanu← R. Matos

72'

Ioan Tolea

72'

A. Botogan← R. Salceanu

74'

F. Borta← M. Briceag

74'

K. Brobbey← A. Bettaieb

74'

78'

81'

89'

90+6'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArgesPetrolul

Overview

60%Possession40%

16Total Shots7

1.03Expected Goals (xG)0.81

7Corners3

9Fouls20

Shots

16Total Shots7

2On Target3

8Off Target2

6Blocked2

8Inside Box4

8Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

442Total Passes298

358Accurate Passes217

81%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls20

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1