Arges Pitesti 0–0 Metalul Buzău: Result & Stats

Arges Pitesti

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Metalul Buzău

3/1/2025

Liga II · Round 19Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Arges Pitesti45%

×Draw26%

Metalul Buzău29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arges PitestiExpected goals in this matchMetalul Buzău

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.13

Arges Pitesti

1.46

Metalul Buzău

1.13

Arges Pitesti creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 27 away

1.58

creates per match

1.44

0.81

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Arges Pitesti

1.58

Metalul Buzău

1.44

allows per match

Arges Pitesti

0.81

Metalul Buzău

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Metalul Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Metalul Buzău →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw

71%

Arges Pitesti or Metalul Buzău

74%

Draw or Metalul Buzău

55%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

22%

Metalul Buzău wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

77%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

43%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

18%

Metalul Buzău 1+ goals

68%

Metalul Buzău 2+ goals

31%

Metalul Buzău 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

60%

Metalul Buzău (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.81 · 52 matches

Metalul Buzău away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.58 + Metalul Buzău defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Metalul Buzău attack 1.44 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more

45%

level

26%

Metalul Buzău scores more

29%

Arges Pitesti at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

E. Mehmedovic

46'

M. Roman← E. Mehmedović

46'

A. Nica← M. Constantinescu

47'

C. Acolatse

52'

D. Lazar

60'

V. Robu← S. Moldovan

62'

F. Tchassem← R. Moldoveanu

71'

P. Mitrică← K. Doukoure

71'

G. Gheorghe← P. Dulcea

85'

Y. Hanada← C. Borțoneanu

89'

P. Mitrica

90+5'

I. Dinu

Arges

Metalul

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Andone

46'▲M. Roman←▼E. Mehmedović

62'▲F. Tchassem←▼R. Moldoveanu

71'▲P. Mitrică←▼K. Doukoure

71'▲G. Gheorghe←▼P. Dulcea

Arges Pitesti substitutes

RomanTchassemMitricăGheorghe

Manager: V. Stan

46'▲A. Nica←▼M. Constantinescu

60'▲V. Robu←▼S. Moldovan

85'▲Y. Hanada←▼C. Borțoneanu

Metalul Buzău substitutes

NicaRobuHanada

Liga II: Arges Pitesti 0–0 Metalul Buzău

Arges Pitesti and Metalul Buzău drew 0-0 in Liga II on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Mioveni.

Arges Pitesti vs Metalul Buzău — Liga II 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga II: Arges Pitesti 0–0 Metalul Buzău