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Arges Pitesti vs Focşani — Liga II 2018

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Focşani
Focşani
8/12/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 2Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Arges Pitesti59%
×Draw26%
Focşani14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.47
Focşani
0.57

Arges Pitesti creates 158% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 12 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.61
Focşani
0.42

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
0.73
Focşani
1.33

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
Focşani+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Focşani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
86%
Arges Pitesti or Focşani
74%
Draw or Focşani
41%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
31%
Focşani wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
77%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
43%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
18%
Focşani 1+ goals
43%
Focşani 2+ goals
11%
Focşani 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
81%
Focşani (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Focşani away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + Focşani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Focşani attack 0.42 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
59%
level
26%
Focşani scores more
14%

Arges Pitesti at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Arges Pitesti 2–0 Focşani

Arges Pitesti beat Focşani 2-0 in Liga II on August 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Mioveni.