Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arges Pitesti vs Dumbrăviţa — Liga II 2018

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dumbrăviţa
Dumbrăviţa
5/3/2024Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 6Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Arges Pitesti56%
×Draw25%
Dumbrăviţa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.63
Dumbrăviţa
0.83

Arges Pitesti creates 96% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 54 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.61
Dumbrăviţa
0.94

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
0.73
Dumbrăviţa
1.65

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
Dumbrăviţa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Dumbrăviţa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
81%
Arges Pitesti or Dumbrăviţa
75%
Draw or Dumbrăviţa
44%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
31%
Dumbrăviţa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
80%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
48%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
22%
Dumbrăviţa 1+ goals
56%
Dumbrăviţa 2+ goals
20%
Dumbrăviţa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
75%
Dumbrăviţa (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Dumbrăviţa away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + Dumbrăviţa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dumbrăviţa attack 0.94 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
56%
level
25%
Dumbrăviţa scores more
19%

Arges Pitesti at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Arges Pitesti 1–0 Dumbrăviţa

Arges Pitesti beat Dumbrăviţa 1-0 in Liga II on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Mioveni.